42,000+. That's how many misdemeanor cases LA DA Gascón's office declined in 2021.
The best study shows diverting first-time, low-level cases cuts reoffending, with no clear link to violent crime. But Prop 47 raised theft, and both campaigns were bankrolled by a few big donors. Now Prop 36 depends on each DA: in 2025 San Francisco filed 4 treatment-mandated felony cases. Los Angeles filed 1,660.
The good: Diversion for first-time, low-level offenders is evidence-backed. The cost: Blanket non-enforcement of repeat theft eroded order and trust.
PRO: Diversion for first-time, low-level offenders is evidence-backed.
CON / COST: Blanket non-enforcement of repeat theft eroded order and trust.
SOCIETY: Prop 36 is a reasonable correction, but needs treatment capacity.
Full analysis
"Crime: No Prosecute": Progressive Prosecutors and Props 47/36
Tests the claim that declining to prosecute drives crime, using Boudin, Gascón, Krasner, Prop 47 and Prop 36. As of Nov 4, 2026.
Content as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:32 PM ET. Source Page: PolicyBombs canvas
Long-form deep analysis. Companion to the 10-minute quick reference (04-crime-no-prosecute-summary.docx).
10-Minute Voter Guide
Who’s for / against: For progressive non-prosecution policies: DAs Larry Krasner (D-Philadelphia) and George Gascón (D, ousted 2024). Against: Prop 36 backers, a mix of Republicans, DAs, and Democratic mayors Breed and Mahan. Voters passed Prop 36 with 68%; Gov. Newsom opposed it.
Reform DAs stopped charging many low-level offenses. Gascón’s office declined more than 42,000 misdemeanor cases in 2021. The best study shows diversion of first-time, low-level cases cuts reoffending, and no clear link to violent crime has been shown. But Prop 47 raised theft, and the campaigns on both sides were bankrolled by a few big donors. Prop 36 now depends on each DA: San Francisco filed 4 treatment-mandated felony cases in 2025, Los Angeles 1,660.
Pros of reform prosecution | Cons |
+ Diverting low-level cases cuts reoffending (Agan, Doleac and Harvey) + Of 187 people released in LA resentencing, the DA’s office reports no new convictions + Philadelphia homicides at a 60-year low under Krasner | – Prop 47 raised theft about 9% – Diversion outcomes went untracked in SF (local reporting) – Uneven Prop 36 enforcement means voters’ law depends on the DA’s choices |
Bottom line: Divert first-time and low-level offenders, but require consequences for repeat theft and public outcome data from every DA.
Contents
- 10-Minute Voter Guide
- Key facts
- 1. What is the policy
- 2. Why it exists
- 3. Realized effects
- Local DA data and campaign money
- 4. Good or bad for society
- Who supports / who opposes
- References
Bottom line: The evidence doesn’t support the strong claim that progressive prosecutors caused the 2020–22 violent crime spike: it hit every type of city. Not prosecuting low-level offenses reduced repeat offending in the best study. But Prop 47 did raise property theft modestly, and voters punished the visible disorder. They recalled Boudin, ousted Gascón, and passed Prop 36. Krasner survived as Philadelphia homicides hit 60-year lows. |
Key facts
Item | Date | Status / result |
|---|---|---|
Chesa Boudin (SF DA) | Elected 2019 | Recalled June 2022, about 55% yes |
George Gascón (LA DA) | Elected 2020 | Lost Nov 2024 to Nathan Hochman by a wide margin |
Larry Krasner (Philadelphia DA) | Elected 2017 | Re-elected Nov 2025, 76.1% |
Philadelphia homicides | 2021 / 2025 | 562 (record) / 222 (lowest since 1966) |
CA Prop 47 | Nov 2014 | Theft under $950 and drug possession made misdemeanors |
CA Prop 36 | Nov 2024, about 68% yes | Felony for repeat theft; treatment-mandated drug felony |
Prop 36 drug cases, 2025 | 19,104 filed | 17% chose treatment; 57 completed (Judicial Council) |
1. What is the policy
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Progressive prosecution | Elected DAs adopted policies such as no cash bail requests, declining many low-level misdemeanors, ending sentence enhancements (Gascón’s Day 1 directives, Dec 2020), no juveniles tried as adults, and more prosecutions of police. |
Prop 47 (2014) | Reclassified shoplifting, theft, and receiving stolen property under $950, plus simple drug possession, as misdemeanors. Savings went to treatment and schools through SSCF grants. |
Prop 36 (2024) | Makes a third theft a felony regardless of value. Creates a treatment-mandated felony for repeat drug possession and adds fentanyl dealing enhancements. Passed about 68%. The legislature put up limited funding at first. |
2. Why it exists
Stated reasons | Underlying drivers |
+ Mass incarceration costs a lot and hits Black communities hardest + Prosecuting minor offenses can increase later offending + Prison overcrowding: Brown v. Plata (2011) forced CA to cut its prison population + Redirect money to treatment | – Low-turnout DA races were cheap for national donors to win (Soros-linked PACs funded Gascón, Krasner and Boudin campaigns) – Prop 47 was partly a fiscal response to court-ordered cuts in the prison population – Police and prosecutor unions and retailers funded the backlash (Prop 36 was retailer-backed) – Both sides use crime as a turnout tool |
3. Realized effects
Item | Detail | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
Nonprosecution of misdemeanors | Agan, Doleac and Harvey (QJE 2023), Suffolk County MA: nonprosecuted marginal defendants were about 53% less likely to be re-arrested within 2 years. This is the strongest causal study, and it covers low-level cases only. | Reduced reoffending |
Progressive DAs and violent crime | Multi-city studies (e.g. Petersen et al. 2023 on 35 jurisdictions) find no significant effect on crime rates. Hogan (2022) linked Krasner to about 75 extra homicides a year; critics disputed the method. The 2020–22 spike was nationwide, including in cities with tough DAs. | No clear effect |
Prop 47 | PPIC (Bird et al.): no effect on violent crime. Larceny, especially car break-ins and shoplifting, rose about 9% compared with control states. Recidivism dipped slightly for released people. Treatment money under-delivered relative to the promise. | Modest theft increase |
Prop 36 | In its first full year, 34,612 felony cases (19,104 drug, 15,508 theft). Only 17% of drug defendants chose treatment, and 57 completed it. Prison admissions for the new drug felony were 635 by Aug 2026. Retail theft trends are not yet causally separated from the national decline. | Early; weak treatment uptake |
Philadelphia | Homicides fell from 562 (2021) to 222 (2025) under the same DA. This shows the DA was not the dominant driver either way. | Down sharply |
Local DA data and campaign money
Finding | Record / conclusion | Source |
|---|---|---|
LA misdemeanor declinations, 2021 | More than 42,000 declined, over 25,000 of them public intoxication or simple drug possession. Crime analysis found the effect hard to isolate. | LA Times data analysis |
LA resentencing under Gascón | About 244 resentenced over 3 years; 187 released; the office reports no new convictions. This is the office’s own data, not independently audited. | LA DA 2024 annual report |
SF diversion under Boudin | Local outlet reports hundreds of violent-offense cases sent to diversion with no outcome tracking. Not confirmed by an audit. | The Voice of San Francisco |
Prop 36 filings by county, 2025 | San Francisco: 4 treatment-mandated felony cases. Los Angeles: 1,660. LA filed more than 1,000 felony theft charges by May 2025. | Judicial Council; LA DA |
Prop 47 grant outcomes | 15.3% recidivism among 21,706 participants, against 35–45% statewide. This is the program’s own evaluation with no randomized control, so selection bias is likely. | BSCC Cohort II evaluation |
DA campaign money | Soros-linked committees: Gascón about $3M; Krasner $1.7M (2017) and $259K (2021); Boudin more than $620K via aligned donors. Figures are from conservative trackers; verify with county filings. | Washington Times; Capital Research Center |
Ballot measure money | Prop 47 (2014): about $9.5M yes, including $1.4M from Open Society, against about $550K no. Prop 36 (2024): Walmart $4.08M, Target and Home Depot $1M each. | LA Times; CalMatters / Cal-Access |
No court has found corruption in these DA policies. The pattern is concentrated money on both sides: national criminal-justice donors for reform, and retailers for the rollback. What changed: the verdict now adds that DA discretion is quietly undoing Prop 36 in some counties, and that self-reported program results (BSCC, DA offices) need independent audit.
4. Good or bad for society
Verdict: Not prosecuting first-time, low-level offenses is good policy, supported by evidence. Blanket non-enforcement of repeat theft and open drug use was bad policy that wore away public order and trust, and voters correctly corrected it. Prop 36 is a reasonable correction so far, but without treatment capacity it will mostly become incarceration. |
Strongest case for reform prosecutors | Strongest case against |
+ Best causal evidence shows less reoffending from diversion + No measurable violent-crime penalty across cities + Large savings from prisons and less harm to families | – Repeat offenders face no consequence, which has signaling effects (retail theft, open-air drug markets) – Prop 47 measurably raised property crime – DAs refusing to enforce laws voters passed undermines democratic legitimacy |
Who supports / who opposes
For = progressive non-prosecution of low-level crime. Against = tougher charging and sentencing (e.g., Prop 36). Each row cites a numbered source below. Checked Nov 4, 2026.
Who | Party / level | Position | Evidence | Ref |
CA District Attorneys Assn.; SF Mayor London Breed (D); San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D); CA Republicans | Mixed | Against | Backed Prop 36 (2024), rolling back parts of Prop 47; passed 68.4%–31.6% | [1] |
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) | Democrat | Mixed | Opposed Prop 36, saying it would revive mass incarceration without funding | [2] |
LA DA George Gascón (D) | Democrat | For | Ran on non-prosecution of low-level crimes; lost to Nathan Hochman (independent, ex-Republican) in Nov 2024 | [3] |
San Francisco voters | Local | Against | Recalled DA Chesa Boudin (Jun 2022) | [4] |
Alameda County voters | Local | Against | Recalled DA Pamela Price (Nov 2024) | [5] |
Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner (D) | Democrat | For | Impeached by the PA House in 2022 (articles lapsed; PA Supreme Court ruled 2024); re-elected to a third term Nov 2025 | [6] |
Cross-party defectors: Big-city Democratic mayors (Breed, Mahan) broke with Newsom and the Legislature’s leaders to back Prop 36.
How positions shifted: California voters passed Prop 47 (2014) with 60%, then reversed much of it with Prop 36 (2024) with 68%. Democratic support for progressive prosecutors has shrunk since 2022.
Sources for this section:
- [1] CalMatters: Prop 36 passes overwhelmingly (calmatters.org) https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/11/prop-36-california-election-result/
- [2] LA Times: Democrats show support for Prop 36 (latimes.com) https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-14/democrats-show-support-for-crime-measure-proposition-36-call-for-mass-treatment-of-californians
- [3] Ballotpedia: George Gascón (ballotpedia.org) https://ballotpedia.org/George_Gasc%C3%B3n
- [4] Ballotpedia: Chesa Boudin recall (ballotpedia.org) https://ballotpedia.org/Chesa_Boudin_recall,_San_Francisco,_California_(2021-2022)
- [5] Ballotpedia: Pamela Price recall (ballotpedia.org) https://ballotpedia.org/Pamela_Price_recall,_Alameda_County,_California_(2023-2024)
- [6] Philadelphia Inquirer: Larry Krasner reelected (Nov 2025) (inquirer.com) https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/district-attorney-election-results-winner-20251104.html
References
[1] Agan, Doleac & Harvey, Misdemeanor Prosecution (QJE 2023). academic.oup.com. https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/138/3/1453/7069279
[2] BSCC: Prop 47 Cohort II evaluation. bscc.ca.gov. http://www.bscc.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/H-2-Proposition-47-Cohort-2-Final-Evaluation-Report-FINAL-1.pdf
[3] LA DA 2024 annual report summary. da.lacounty.gov. https://da.lacounty.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/LADA_Fact_Sheet_Report.pdf
[4] Voice of SF: SF DA Prop 36 filings. thevoicesf.org. https://thevoicesf.org/san-francisco-district-attorney-has-filed-just-one-treatment-mandated-drug-possession-case-under-proposition-36/
[5] CalMatters: Prop 36 fundraising. calmatters.org. https://calmatters-voter-guide-2024.netlify.app/campaign-finance/prop/prop36
[6] LA Times: NY foundations bankrolled Prop 47. latimes.com. https://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-ff-new-york-foundations-bankrolled-prop-47-20150202-story.html
[7] PPIC: Prop 47’s impact on crime. ppic.org. https://www.ppic.org/publication/the-impact-of-proposition-47-on-crime-and-recidivism/
[8] Judicial Council: 2026 Prop 36 court data report. courts.ca.gov. https://courts.ca.gov/system/files/legislative-reports/lr-2026-proposition-36-court-data.pdf
[9] CA Policy Lab: Prop 36 prison data, Aug 2026. capolicylab.org. https://capolicylab.org/prop-36-august-2026-update/
[10] CalMatters: Is Prop 36 working?. calmatters.org. https://calmatters.org/justice/2026/09/prop-36-drug-treatment/
[11] Pew: Philadelphia’s homicides at historic lows. pew.org. https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/12/15/philadelphias-homicides-at-historic-lows
[12] Ballotpedia: Larry Krasner. ballotpedia.org. https://ballotpedia.org/Lawrence_Krasner
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