Pros of easy mail voting / third-party return

Cons

+ Access for elderly, disabled, rural, military and shift-working voters (30% of 2024 voters used mail)

+ Paper trail: every mail ballot has an envelope, signature and audit trail

+ 98.8% of returned mail ballots were counted in 2024 (EAVS)

– Ballots are filled out away from poll workers, so coercion and harvesting can’t be seen

– Proven cases have overturned real elections (NC-09, Paterson, Bridgeport)

– Dirty rolls mean ballots get mailed to people who moved or died, creating opportunity

– Prosecutions are slow and often fail, so deterrence is weak

Bottom line: Mail-ballot fraud is rare statewide but real and decisive in small local races. The best-documented abuses come from paid or partisan ballot handlers, not from phantom voters at vacant lots. Back reforms that verify the voter and record who handled the ballot (ID number on the envelope, signature cure, chain-of-custody limits on who may return ballots, cameras on drop boxes, routine list maintenance with ERIC). Be skeptical of viral address claims until a county follows up.

Absentee / mail voting

Every state allows some mail voting; 8 states (plus DC) mail every voter a ballot. 2024: 66.9M mail ballots sent, 48.0M returned, 47.6M counted (EAVS).

Ballot return by third parties ("harvesting")

Rules vary widely. California AB 1921 (2016, effective 2017) lets a voter designate anyone to return their ballot, and it can’t be a paid-per-ballot arrangement. Texas SB 1 (2021) makes paid vote harvesting a felony; the 5th Circuit upheld that ban in Feb 2026. NC, AL and others limit return to family or guardians.

Voter-roll maintenance (NVRA Sec. 8)

States must make a ‘reasonable effort’ to remove dead and moved voters. A voter who doesn’t answer a confirmation notice becomes inactive and is removed only after two federal general elections without contact. No systematic removals are allowed within 90 days of a federal election. Private groups (Judicial Watch, PILF) enforce this by lawsuit. For example, Judicial Watch’s 2019 settlement with LA County and California required notices to up to 1.5M inactive registrants.

Verification tools

Signature match (most states), ID number or copy on the envelope (TX, GA, MN, OH, AL, AR, etc.), witness or notary (a few), ballot tracking, ERIC interstate data-sharing (about 24 states plus DC as of 2026, after 9 GOP-led states left in 2023), and SSA death data.

Case for broad mail voting and assisted return

Case for tight limits

+ Turnout and convenience, especially for the elderly and disabled

+ Lower cost per voter in all-mail states

+ Help for voters who can’t reach a mailbox (rural, tribal lands, homebound)

– The secret ballot is lost at the kitchen table: family, caregivers or operatives can pressure the voter

– Chain of custody breaks when one person carries dozens of ballots

– Bloated rolls send live ballots to wrong addresses

NC-09, 2018 (Bladen/Robeson counties)

Republican Mark Harris led by 905 votes. Operative McCrae Dowless’s paid workers collected, filled in and discarded absentee ballots, and Harris won 61% of Bladen mail ballots. The state board refused to certify and ordered a new election (2019). Dowless was indicted but died in April 2022 before trial. Co-defendants (Lisa Britt and others) pleaded guilty and got probation or community service.

Substantiated; result voided

Paterson NJ, May 2020 council (all-mail)

About 19% of ballots (roughly 3,190 of 16,747) were disqualified, and hundreds of ballots were found bundled in mailboxes. A judge voided the 3rd Ward result; Alex Mendez won the rerun by 9 votes. Councilmen Mendez and Michael Jackson were indicted. Mendez’s case was dismissed in April 2026 on speedy-trial grounds and an undisclosed witness immunity deal. Jackson’s case also collapsed in May 2026 after a state investigator gave the grand jury inaccurate information. Correction to earlier framing: no conviction of the councilmen.

Result voided; prosecution failed

Bridgeport CT, Sept 2023 Dem mayoral primary

Ganim beat Gomes by 251 votes (4,212 to 3,961) after winning absentees roughly 2-to-1. Surveillance video showed stacks of ballots stuffed into drop boxes. Judge William Clark voided the result and ordered a new primary (Ganim won the Jan 2024 redo). Feb 2025: five people charged, including Wanda Geter-Pataky (96 counts). As of Aug 2026 she and Alfredo Castillo rejected plea deals and chose jury trials.

Result voided; charges pending

Frio County TX, 2024 (Paxton)

Nine people were indicted, later 15 defendants including County Judge Rochelle Camacho and city officials, for paid vote harvesting. All pleaded not guilty. No convictions as of Nov 2026. A related $50M defamation suit was dismissed in May 2026.

Pending

Fulton County GA (AJC 2013): over 100 people voted in 2012 while registered at demolished public-housing sites

Real roll decay: 10,000 or more addresses didn’t match. AJC found mostly ex-residents who had moved but kept old registrations. Officials began a cleanup; no fraud prosecutions reported

Anomaly real; fraud unsubstantiated

Venice CA, 2026: 26 voters ‘at a vacant lot’ (viral video, 1.3M views)

LA County: the site was a Bridge Home homeless shelter until Dec 31, 2024. State law lets homeless voters register at a shelter. 23 active records remained, subject to undeliverable-mail inactivation

Unsubstantiated (PolitiFact: False)

Clark County NV and Detroit MI: ‘voters at vacant lots’ (Crowder, 2021)

Clark County found typos by the video makers (wrong street or direction) and some clerical errors in county records. Real addresses included senior apartments

Unsubstantiated as fraud; some record errors

Wisconsin 2024: 30,084 mail-ballot requests at ‘fishy addresses’ (CommonSense Elections)

Commercial data-matching (moved, undeliverable, missing apartment number). No official finding of illegal votes published. In a separate RNC complaint, the Wisconsin Elections Commission showed the ballots flagged had already been voided when the voter went inactive or died

Unverified / mostly explained

Jeff Davis Parish LA (KPLC 2023): registrations at vacant lots and dilapidated homes

Registrar removed some names and sent 18 address-verification letters

List cleanup; no charges reported

‘Up to ~40 ballots tied to one vacant house’

Not located in local news, court or official sources this turn for any U.S. state. The closest documented items are the Venice lot (26 registrations, a shelter) and Fulton’s demolished-housing voters (over 100 across several sites). Treat it as unverified until the address, county and election are known

Unverified

Georgia 2020

Trump claimed 5,000 dead voters; SOS investigators found 4 ballots cast in dead people’s names, all by relatives, and referred them for prosecution.

4 substantiated

Michigan 2020 (Auditor General, 2022)

1,616 counted ballots came from people dead by Election Day (0.03% of 5.5M). Most were absentee ballots legally cast before the voter died. Clerks rejected another 3,469 such ballots. Duplicate votes were minimal.

Mostly lawful

2024 rejection data (EAVS)

11.1% of rejected mail ballots (about 36,000 nationally) were rejected because the voter had already cast another accepted ballot. The double-vote check catches these, but it shows how often attempts or mistakes happen.

Caught by system

ERIC

Since 2013 member states have been flagged on 14.6M cross-state movers and 1.46M in-state duplicate registrations (to Sept 2026). These are list-cleanup leads, not fraud findings. Kansas’s Crosscheck (closed 2019) had about 99% false positives; a study estimated about 300 legitimate registrations would be wrongly purged for every real double vote.

Data

Heritage database

387 ‘fraudulent use of absentee ballots’ cases (as of Dec 2025) out of about 1,600 total cases, spanning decades. It is a sample of proven cases, not a measure of how common fraud is.

Proven cases

Active registrations

211,144,275

Inactive registrations (need address confirmation before voting)

23,184,185 (about 1 in 10)

Records removed, 2022 to 2024 registration close

21,298,175

Confirmation notices sent / returned undeliverable / never answered

38.8M sent / 8.4% undeliverable / 69.7% unanswered

Mail ballots sent / returned / counted

66.9M / 48.0M (72%) / 47.6M (98.8%)

Share of jurisdictions using undeliverable mail ballots to flag voters for removal

64.8%

Racine County WI nursing home, 2020

Sheriff Schmaling said 8 residents at Ridgewood Care Center who lacked capacity had voted, after the Elections Commission suspended visits by special voting deputies. The Racine DA declined to charge commissioners (no jurisdiction). Milwaukee and other DAs also declined, finding insufficient evidence; staff weren’t charged. Real procedural breach (law suspended without authority), but not prosecutable fraud.

No charges

Arizona (Maricopa) 2021 Cyber Ninjas review

The hand count confirmed Biden’s win. Claims of voters at vacant or ‘moved’ addresses relied on commercial data; Maricopa’s rebuttal found almost all were lawful (e.g. military, students, address-confidential voters). AP: ‘nonsensical conclusions’.

Unsubstantiated

Michigan 2020 (Senate GOP oversight report, Auditor General)

No evidence of widespread fraud. Dead-voter counts were mostly timing, not fraud.

Unsubstantiated as widespread

Paterson 3rd Ward rerun, 2020

9 votes

Virginia HD-94, 2017

Tie, decided by drawing a name from a bowl

Bridgeport primary, 2023

251 votes (voided)

Florida presidential, 2000

537 votes

NC-09, 2018

905 votes (voided)

Arizona presidential, 2020

10,457 votes

Georgia presidential, 2020

11,779 votes

Wisconsin presidential, 2020

20,682 votes

Verdict: Mail voting with loose ballot-return rules and stale rolls is a real vulnerability. It has demonstrably flipped local and congressional results, which is more than can be said for in-person impersonation or noncitizen voting. The fix is not ending mail voting, which serves millions and is mostly honest. The fix is tightening the few points where operatives intervene: who may carry ballots, ID on the envelope, signature checks with notice and cure, drop-box cameras, and steady list maintenance. Viral ‘vacant house’ claims usually dissolve on follow-up; organized local harvesting does not.

Trade-offs of tightening

Risks of tightening

+ Limits on who can return ballots plus custody logs would have flagged NC-09 and Bridgeport earlier

+ ID numbers on envelopes verify the voter more objectively than signature matching

+ Clean rolls remove the raw material for misdirected ballots

– Texas SB 1 ID rules caused about 12% of mail ballots to be rejected in the March 2022 primary before the rate fell

– Aggressive purges hit eligible voters (Crosscheck’s 99% false positives)

– Harvesting bans can criminalize innocent help to elderly or disabled voters

NC-09 2018

Paid harvesting/alteration

Hundreds of ballots; 905 margin

Substantiated; voided; pleas

Paterson NJ 2020

Mail ballot fraud alleged

19% disqualified

Voided; charges dismissed 2026

Bridgeport CT 2023

Drop-box stuffing

251 margin

Voided; 5 charged, pending

Frio County TX 2024

Paid harvesting

15 defendants

Pending

Georgia dead voters 2020

Impersonation

4 ballots

Substantiated (relatives)

Michigan dead voters 2020

Timing

1,616 counted

Mostly lawful

Racine nursing home 2020

Procedural breach

8 residents

No charges

Fulton demolished housing 2012

Roll decay

Over 100 voters

No charges reported

Venice CA lot 2026

Address claim

26 registrations

Shelter; false

Wisconsin 30,084 requests 2024

Commercial data claim

30,084

Unverified

‘~40 ballots at a vacant house’

Address claim

~40

Not found / unverified

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Asm. Lorena Gonzalez (D); Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)

Democrat

For

AB 1921 (2016) lets anyone a voter designates return their mail ballot

[1]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA); Sen. Dave Min (D)

Democrat

For

SB 1174 (2024) bars local voter-ID rules, aimed at Huntington Beach Measure A

[2]

Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA)

Republican

Against

Signed SB 202 (2021), adding ID for absentee ballots and limiting drop boxes

[3]

Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX)

Republican

Against

Signed SB 1 (2021), tightening mail and assistance rules

[4]

President Donald Trump

Republican

Against

EO of Mar 25, 2025 on ballot receipt deadlines and voter-list checks

[5]

McCrae Dowless (R operative), NC-9

Republican

Mixed

Absentee-ballot fraud led to a new 2019 election

[6]

What policy gets right

What it misses

+ Toughest forced-labor import ban in the world (UFLPA)

+ Pushes supply chains away from China

– No due-diligence rule for cobalt child labor

– Weak oversight of EV subsidy and grant recipients

– Consumer EV credit repealed, reducing leverage

Bottom line for voters: Both ‘EVs run on child slavery’ and ‘clean supply chain’ are spin. Ask for mine-to-battery traceability and audited subsidy recipients.

Bottom line: Child labor in Congolese cobalt and state-imposed Uyghur labor in Chinese minerals processing are documented. US policy targeted China (UFLPA, FEOC rules) far more than it targeted the DRC. EV subsidies were justified on climate grounds while the supply chain carried these abuses. The 2025 law ended the consumer EV credit anyway. Child labor in cobalt is real, but most cobalt also goes into phones, laptops and refining. Cobalt-free LFP batteries now reduce the exposure.

DRC share of world cobalt mining

About 70%+ (2023–24)

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries

Children in southern DRC mines

About 40,000 (2014 estimate, cited by Amnesty 2016); old, not updated

UNICEF via Amnesty

Artisanal share of DRC output

Estimates range roughly 10–30%; not verified for 2026

Various (OECD, industry)

China share of cobalt refining

About 75%+

IEA

Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act

In force since June 21, 2022; presumption of forced labor for Xinjiang-linked goods

CBP

IRA 30D EV credit sourcing rules

Critical-mineral and battery-component thresholds; FEOC exclusions 2024–25

IRS / Treasury

30D termination

Ended for vehicles acquired after Sept 30, 2025 (OBBBA)

IRS

45X battery FEOC threshold

Non-PFE material share 60% (2026) rising to 85% (2030+)

Treasury / IRS

UFLPA (2021 law)

Goods made wholly or partly in Xinjiang, or by entities on the UFLPA Entity List, are presumed made with forced labor and barred at the border unless importers prove otherwise. Lithium, aluminum, polysilicon and battery-related firms have been added to the list over time.

IRA Section 30D (2022)

The $7,500 credit was split. Half required critical minerals to be extracted or processed in the US or a free-trade partner. Half required battery components made in North America. Vehicles with batteries from a ‘foreign entity of concern’ (China and others) were excluded from 2024 (components) and 2025 (minerals). There was no explicit child-labor or DRC provision.

2025 law

OBBBA ended 30D and 25E after Sept 30, 2025. The 45X manufacturing credit continues but, for tax years beginning after July 4, 2025, denies credit for battery components with ‘material assistance’ from a prohibited foreign entity. The non-PFE share of direct material costs must reach 60% in 2026, rising to 85% from 2030 (Treasury/IRS guidance).

Other

Section 307 of the Tariff Act bars forced-labor goods (Withhold Release Orders). Dodd-Frank 1502 conflict-minerals rules cover tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold, not cobalt. EU Battery Regulation (2023) requires due diligence from 2025, later delayed.

Child labor in DRC

Amnesty (2016) documented children as young as 7 in artisanal mines. Siddharth Kara’s ‘Cobalt Red’ (2023) is vivid but anecdotal. Industry and the Fair Cobalt Alliance say most battery cobalt comes from industrial mines, though artisanal ore mixes in at traders and refiners. Lawsuits against Apple, Tesla and others (Doe v. Apple) were dismissed in 2024.

Documented, scale unclear

Uyghur forced labor

Sheffield Hallam ‘Driving Force’ (Dec 2022) found 96 auto-relevant firms in the Uyghur Region, at least 38 using state labor transfers, and over 100 international automakers or suppliers with exposure, including in batteries. CBP has detained billions in goods under UFLPA, mostly solar and apparel. Several battery-material firms are on the Entity List.

Documented

Sourcing shifts

Fewer models qualified for 30D after FEOC rules. Automakers moved toward LFP (cobalt-free) and Korean, Japanese and US supply. Lower cobalt intensity reduces DRC exposure but raises dependence on Chinese LFP.

Partial

Enforcement gaps

Traceability through refiners is weak. The UFLPA presumption does not reach DRC child labor. The 30D repeal removed the main US consumer-side lever.

Weak

Verdict: Child and forced labor in battery supply chains is a real moral failure, and US policy treated it inconsistently. It was strict where China was the target, close to silent on DRC artisanal mining, and it subsidized EVs without requiring traceable minerals. UFLPA is good policy. A cobalt-specific due-diligence rule with audits is missing. "EVs run on child slavery" overstates the case. "Clean supply chain" understates it.

Case that current policy is adequate

Case that it fails

+ UFLPA is the world’s toughest forced-labor import ban

+ FEOC rules cut China dependence

+ LFP chemistry reduces cobalt need

– No DRC or cobalt child-labor provision

– Refiner-level mixing defeats audits

– Repeal of 30D removed leverage over automakers

DOE failed to obtain required financial and compliance audits for six for-profit EV grant recipients

DOE Inspector General (OAS-RA-12-11)

Control weakness confirmed

Ecotality: about $100M charger project behind schedule, about 1,000 chargers uninstalled; DOE hadn’t fully disclosed concerns before its 2013 bankruptcy

DOE IG (OAS-RA-14-01)

Oversight failure; no fraud charges noted

Fisker: $529M DOE loan guarantee; $192M disbursed; DOE recovered about $53M after bankruptcy

Center for Public Integrity; DOE

Taxpayer loss of about $139M; a business failure, not fraud

NEVI federal charger program: 384 ports built by April 2025 under a $5B program

GAO-25-106992

GAO called for improved performance management

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) & Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

Bipartisan

For

Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (P.L. 117-78), signed Dec 23, 2021

[1]

House Republicans + 35 Democrats

Bipartisan

Against

H.J.Res. 88 revoking CA Advanced Clean Cars II waiver passed House (May 1, 2025); signed Jun 12, 2025

[2]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA); CARB

Democrat

For

Champions the Advanced Clean Cars II rule (100% zero-emission new-car sales by 2035), which H.J.Res. 88 revoked

[3]

Republicans; President Trump

Republican

Against

H.R. 1 (2025) ended EV purchase credits after Sept 30, 2025

[4]

Defense of 2021 policy

Criticism

+ Fast jobs recovery, no recession

+ Low-wage workers gained most by 2024

– Prices permanently higher

– Real wages falling again in 2026

– Some producers exploited the chaos to manipulate prices

Bottom line for voters: Ask how candidates will avoid stimulus that overheats the economy, keep energy supply stable, and enforce antitrust laws against price manipulation.

Bottom line: Real wages fell through 2021–22, recovered in 2023–25, and are falling again in 2026: Sept 2026 CPI 3.7% vs 3.0% wage growth. The 2021–22 surge had three causes: supply shocks, oversized fiscal stimulus in 2021, and a Fed that waited too long. The price level never comes back down, so households still feel poorer even after wages caught up.

CPI peak

9.1% y/y, June 2022 (highest since 1981)

BLS

CPI, Sept 2025

3.0% y/y

BLS

CPI, Sept 2026

3.7% y/y; core 2.6%; energy +20.4%

BLS / JEC

Avg hourly earnings, Sept 2026

$37.81, up 3.0% y/y

BLS

Real avg hourly earnings, Sept 2026

Down 0.7% y/y ($11.24 in 1982–84 dollars)

BLS

Real avg weekly earnings, Sept 2026

Down 0.1% y/y (longer hours offset part)

BLS

Fed funds rate

Near 0 until Mar 2022; 5.25–5.50% peak Jul 2023 to Sept 2024

Federal Reserve

Fiscal stimulus 2020–21

About $5T, incl. $1.9T ARP (Mar 2021)

CRFB

2020

1.4%

2021

7%

2022

6.5%

2023

3.4%

2024

2.9%

Sept 2025

3%

Sept 2026

3.7%

Fiscal

CARES (2020), Dec 2020 relief, and the American Rescue Plan (Mar 2021) included stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and the expanded Child Tax Credit. The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) had small near-term effects on inflation either way, per CBO.

Monetary

Zero rates plus about $120B a month of asset purchases through late 2021. The Fed called inflation ‘transitory’ into Nov 2021, then raised rates 525 basis points from Mar 2022 to Jul 2023. Cuts began in Sept 2024.

Supply and trade

Pandemic supply-chain snarls, the 2022 Russia–Ukraine energy and food shock, and 2025–26 tariffs (Yale Budget Lab and others estimate a price-level boost). The 2026 energy spike (energy +20.4% and gasoline +34.2% y/y in Sept 2026, per BLS) followed the Iran war’s disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Russian refineries; crude rose from below $70 to over $100 a barrel (AP, BBC).

Real wages

Fell through 2021–22 as prices outpaced pay. Recovered 2023–25; lower-wage workers gained most, a compression documented by Autor, Dube and McGrew (2023). Turned negative again in 2026.

Round trip

Causes, quantified

Bernanke and Blanchard (2023): early inflation driven mostly by energy, food and sectoral shortages, with labor-market tightness growing later. SF Fed (2022): US fiscal support added about 3 points relative to peer countries. Inflation also rose sharply in Europe with less stimulus, which points to global shocks.

Shared blame

Labor market

Unemployment fell to 3.4% (Apr 2023) with no recession. A soft landing was achieved.

Positive

Consumer sentiment

Sentiment stayed depressed after real wages recovered, because the price level is about 20%+ higher than in 2020 and borrowing costs rose.

Negative

Verdict: The 2021 policy mix was bad on net for inflation. The ARP was oversized for a recovering economy and the Fed moved late, so a supply shock became broad inflation. The trade-off was a fast, strong jobs recovery that previous recoveries lacked. 2026’s renewed real-wage decline is driven by energy plus tariff pass-through, and warrants scrutiny of current trade and energy policy.

Defense of 2021 policy

Critique

+ Fastest jobs recovery in decades; no recession

+ Low-wage workers saw real gains by 2024

+ Global inflation shows most was not US policy

– US core inflation ran hotter than peers

– ‘Transitory’ delay required much higher rates later

– Price level permanently higher; savers and fixed incomes lost

Cal-Maine, Versova and Hickman’s coordinated bids to inflate the Urner Barry daily egg-price benchmark, June 2022 to March 2025, raising prices to retailers and consumers

DOJ Antitrust Division with state AGs (NY, CA, TX and others), 2026

Settlement: $3.3M to states, more than 53 million eggs donated, ban on competitor price communications, compliance programs. No admission of liability reported

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) & Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT)

Bipartisan

For

Introduced S. 2013 Higher Wages for American Workers Act ($15 + inflation), Jun 10, 2025

[1]

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)

Republican

Against

Said "I wouldn’t support it" about Hawley’s bill

[2]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)

Democrat

For

Signed AB 1228 (2023), $20 fast-food minimum wage

[3]

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Independent

For

$15 amendment to the American Rescue Plan failed 42–58 (Mar 5, 2021); all Republicans and 8 Democratic-caucus senators voted no

[4]

Arguments that immigration helps

Arguments about harm

+ Fills labor shortages

+ CBO: surge cuts federal deficits by $0.9T over 10 years

+ Immigrants’ children are strong contributors

– Child labor and trafficking in a shadow economy

– Emergency city contracts wasted millions

– Undermines legal immigration and rule of law

Bottom line for voters: Ask candidates how they will stop employers from using illegal labor, vet every child’s sponsor, and audit every emergency migrant contract.

Bottom line: The 2021–24 surge was a policy failure. Release-heavy processing and asylum backlogs drew record crossings. They also fed a shadow labor market where migrants, including unaccompanied children, were exploited in conditions that at the extreme amount to forced labor. Crossings fell about 95% by FY2026 under tougher enforcement. The fiscal picture is genuinely contested and depends on time horizon and education level. Low-wage undocumented labor benefits employers and consumers, while the workers carry most of the cost.

Border Patrol encounters, nationwide

FY21 1.66M; FY22 2.21M; FY23 2.06M; FY24 1.58M; FY25 254K

CBP

Total CBP encounters, FY23 (record)

3.20M (incl. ports of entry, CBP One)

CBP

Southwest border apprehensions, FY26

98,708 (preliminary; DHS says lowest ever)

DHS, Oct 2026

NAS 2016 fiscal study

First generation net cost (mostly state and local, via children’s education); second generation among strongest net contributors

National Academies

FAIR 2023

$150.7B net annual cost of illegal immigration (federal, state, local)

FAIR (restrictionist)

ITEP 2024

Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7B in taxes in 2022

ITEP (progressive)

CBO July 2024

2021–26 surge lowers federal deficits $0.9T over 2024–34 (+$1.2T revenue, +$0.3T outlays); excludes discretionary (about $0.2T) and state/local costs

CBO

Unaccompanied children HHS could not reach

About 85,000 over two years (NYT, 2023, not independently verified here). DHS OIG-24-46 (Aug 2024): of 448,000+ transferred FY19–23, 32,000+ missed court; 291,000+ never served a Notice to Appear

NYT; DHS OIG

Child labor violations

Minors employed in violation up sharply since 2019 (DOL WHD)

US DOL

FY21

1.66M

FY22

2.21M

FY23

2.06M

FY24

1.58M

FY25

254K

FY26

99K

2021–24

Ended Remain in Mexico and paused border wall construction. Title 42 expulsions continued until May 2023. Mass parole and release with court dates, CBP One appointments, CHNV parole (about 530,000), and expanded TPS. June 2024 asylum restrictions cut crossings.

2025–26

National emergency declaration, troops at the border, asylum shut-off at the border, Remain in Mexico restored, CBP One ended, parole and TPS revoked (litigated), mass deportation push with ICE expansion funded by the 2025 reconciliation law. Zero Border Patrol releases since May 2025 (DHS).

Unaccompanied children (UACs)

Under TVPRA 2008, UACs from non-contiguous countries go to HHS’s Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) and are released to sponsors. Record numbers in FY21–23 (about 130,000 in FY22). ORR follow-up was a single safety call after 30 days.

Fiscal

Results depend on the scope chosen. FAIR counts US-citizen children as costs and assumes low taxes. ITEP and Cato emphasize taxes paid and low per-capita benefit use. CBO counts federal gains from the surge but notes state and local costs. NAS (the most neutral) finds low-education first-generation immigrants are net costs over their lifetimes, while their children are net contributors.

Contested

City costs

NYC spent several billion dollars on the shelter system for migrants (city budget estimates over $4B a year at peak). Denver and Chicago faced similar strains.

High local cost

Labor market

Most studies (Card; NAS 2016) find small wage effects overall, with negative effects concentrated on prior immigrants and workers without a high school diploma. Borjas finds larger effects. CBO credited the surge with raising labor force and GDP growth.

Small, uneven

Exploitation and forced labor

NYT (Hannah Dreier, Feb 2023) documented migrant children working overnight shifts in slaughterhouse sanitation (Packers Sanitation paid $1,544,076 in DOL penalties for 102 minors aged 13–17 at 13 plants in 8 states, Feb 2023), auto-parts plants and food processing. Debt bondage to smugglers and sponsors was documented. DHS OIG and HHS OIG found ORR failed to track children and vet sponsors. Labor trafficking cases (e.g., Operation Blooming Onion, GA 2021) involved H-2A and undocumented workers held in slavery-like conditions.

Serious

Verdict: Large-scale illegal immigration is bad for society. It rewards smugglers, exploits migrants (children most of all), overwhelms cities and courts, and erodes support for legal immigration, which has clear economic value. Restoring control was right. Enforcement that ignores employers and offers no legal channels leaves the exploitation in place.

Case that it benefits the US

Case that it harms

+ Fills labor shortages; CBO projects lower deficits

+ Undocumented workers pay tens of billions in taxes

+ Children of immigrants are strong net contributors

– Exploitation, trafficking and child labor are built into a shadow labor market

– Local fiscal and service strain

– Undermines rule of law and legal immigration’s legitimacy

NYC’s $432M no-bid emergency contract with DocGo, a COVID-testing firm with no housing experience: $11M of $13.8M in the first two months unsupported or unallowable; 9,874 empty hotel-room nights paid; $2M+ in unauthorized security hours; 33 of 41 subcontractors had no agreement on file

NYC Comptroller audit, 2024

Recommended recoupment; HPD agreed to review invoices, but the administration signaled it would not recoup. Contract not renewed after May 2024

ORR sponsor vetting, spring 2021: 16% of case files lacked documentation of required safety checks; 19% never updated with pending FBI or child-abuse registry results; 35% had illegible sponsor IDs; 22% of follow-up calls late

HHS OIG OEI-07-21-00250, Feb 2024

ACF agreed to all 6 recommendations; ORR added universal fingerprinting and stricter ID rules in 2025

Same address used for multiple sponsorships is a known red flag

HHS OIG (same report)

OIG noted missed address checks could hide vacant homes or repeat-sponsor addresses; prevalence not quantified

448,000+ children transferred FY2019-23; 32,000+ missed court; 291,000+ never got a court date

DHS OIG-24-46, Aug 2024

ICE could not monitor children; heightened trafficking risk

Packers Sanitation: 102 children aged 13-17 cleaning slaughterhouses overnight at 13 plants

US DOL WHD, Feb 2023

$1,544,076 in civil penalties

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) + Republicans; 12 Senate & 46 House Democrats

Bipartisan

For

Laken Riley Act (S. 5) signed Jan 29, 2025; Senate 64–35, House 263–156

[1]

Sens. James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

Bipartisan

For

Negotiated 2024 border deal; failed cloture 49–50 (Feb 7, 2024) after Trump opposed it

[2]

Sen. Kevin de León (D); Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA)

Democrat

Against

SB 54 (2017) California Values Act limits state/local help to ICE

[3]

Republicans; President Trump

Republican

For

H.R. 1 (2025) funds ~$170B for border/ICE enforcement

[4]

Gov. Pete Wilson (R-CA)

Republican

For (qualified)

Backed Prop 187 (1994), denying services to undocumented; later struck down

[5]

Arguments for sex-based teams

Arguments against

+ Physical advantage persists after hormones

+ Protects girls’ spots, scholarships and records

+ Most Americans agree (about 69%)

– Very few athletes affected

– Excludes a vulnerable group

– Enforcement can lead to invasive checks on any girl

Bottom line for voters: Sex-based rules for competitive teams after puberty are backed by the evidence. Watch for overreach into young kids’ and recreational sports.

Bottom line: For competitive female sports after puberty, sex-based eligibility is justified by the physiology evidence. Testosterone suppression reduces male advantages but does not erase them. The number of athletes affected is very small, so the policy fight is far bigger than the on-field problem. Fairness in elite and scholarship competition is a strong argument. Blanket bans that reach recreational and pre-puberty play are harder to justify.

Biden Title IX rule (gender identity)

Apr 2024

Vacated nationwide Jan 9, 2025 (E.D. Ky.)

Athletics rule never finalized

Executive Order 14201, ‘Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports’

Feb 5, 2025

In force

Title IX enforcement and funding threats

NCAA participation policy

Feb 6, 2025

In force

Women’s competition limited to athletes assigned female at birth

State laws

2020–26

27 states (per SCOTUS opinion)

Idaho first (2020)

West Virginia v. B.P.J. / Little v. Hecox

June 30, 2026

Bans upheld

Title IX and Equal Protection allow sex-based teams; states may, not must, exclude

US v. California Dept of Education / CIF

2025–26

DOJ suit dismissed Aug 31, 2026 (C.D. Cal.)

Spending Clause: no clear notice; CA inclusive policy remains

IOC Protection of the Female Category

Mar 26, 2026

Applies from LA28

One-time SRY gene screen; trans women eligible in male or open categories

NCAA count of transgender athletes

Dec 2024

Testimony

Fewer than 10 among about 510,000 NCAA athletes (Charlie Baker)

Federal

The Biden 2024 rule defined sex discrimination to include gender identity but left athletics to a separate rule that was withdrawn in Dec 2024. Courts vacated the main rule. EO 14201 directs agencies to treat sex as biological sex under Title IX. The Education Department opened investigations (e.g., Maine, California, UPenn; Penn settled July 2025).

Supreme Court (June 30, 2026)

Held that Title IX permits sex-separated teams defined by biological sex and that the Idaho and West Virginia laws are constitutional. SCOTUSblog reports the Title IX holding was unanimous and the Equal Protection ruling divided the Court. Scope is limited to sports.

NCAA and Olympics

NCAA changed policy the day after the EO. World Athletics (2023) and World Aquatics (2022) bar male-puberty athletes from female events. On Mar 26, 2026 the IOC adopted a policy limiting the female category at its events, from LA28, to athletes who pass a one-time SRY gene screen, with narrow DSD exceptions; it is not retroactive and does not cover grassroots sport.

California

State law (AB 1266, 2013) lets students play on teams matching gender identity. In 2025 CIF changed state-meet rules so a displaced girl would also medal. The Education Department found CA in violation, and DOJ sued in July 2025. On Aug 31, 2026 Judge Cynthia Valenzuela dismissed the suit: California lacked clear notice that federal funds required sex-based eligibility, so the Spending Clause barred enforcement. The ruling did not decide whether Title IX permits trans girls on girls’ teams.

Physiology

Male puberty gives about 10–12% advantage in running and swimming and larger gaps in strength and power (Hilton and Lundberg 2021 review). After 12 months of suppression, strength and muscle mass drop only about 5%. Roberts et al. 2021 (US Air Force fitness tests): push-up and sit-up advantages disappeared after 2 years of hormones, but trans women remained about 12% faster than cis women on the 1.5-mile run after 2 years.

Advantage persists

Counter-evidence

IOC-funded Hamilton et al. 2024 found trans women had lower jump performance and lung function relative to body size than cis women; small, cross-sectional study. Data for pre-puberty transition is sparse.

Limited

Scale

Very few cases: under 10 in NCAA; a handful of high-profile high school cases (CT Soule case, AB Hernandez in CA, Lia Thomas 2022 NCAA title).

Small numbers

Trans youth

Exclusion is associated with lower sports participation, and surveys (Trevor Project) link it to worse well-being. Causal evidence is weak.

Real cost

Verdict: Sex-based eligibility for post-puberty competitive female sports is good policy and fits Title IX’s purpose. The evidence shows retained advantage that hormone therapy does not remove. Bans covering young children and recreational play, and invasive eligibility enforcement, go further than the evidence supports. Open categories, and inclusion at the youth and intramural level, are a reasonable compromise.

Strongest case for sex-based teams

Strongest case for inclusion

+ Male puberty advantage largely survives suppression

+ Female category exists to correct for that gap

+ Scholarships, records and safety in contact sports

– Tiny number of athletes; bans are disproportionate

– Exclusion harms a vulnerable group

– Enforcement can lead to sex-verification of any girl who looks ‘masculine’

USDA froze Maine child-nutrition funds over trans-athlete policy

US District Court, D. Maine, Apr 2025

Ordered unfrozen: USDA likely skipped required Title IX procedures. Settled May 2, 2025; merits not decided

DOJ suit against California Dept of Education and CIF

C.D. Cal., Aug 31, 2026

Dismissed on Spending Clause notice grounds; Title IX merits not decided

Fraud or corruption angle

Search of audits and court records

None found. This is a rights and fairness dispute, not a spending one

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) + House Republicans

Republican

For

Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R. 28) passed House 218–206 (Jan 14, 2025)

[1]

Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX)

Democrat (defectors)

For

Voted yes on H.R. 28

[1]

Senate Democrats

Democrat

Against

Blocked cloture on S. 9, 51–45 (Mar 3, 2025)

[2]

President Donald Trump

Republican

For

EO 14201 "Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports" (Feb 5, 2025)

[3]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)

Democrat (defector)

For (qualified)

Called trans athletes in women’s sports "deeply unfair" (podcast, Mar 2025); has not changed CA law

[4]

Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA); Asm. Tom Ammiano (D)

Democrat

Against

AB 1266 (2013) lets CA students play on teams matching gender identity

[5]

Arguments for the closures

Arguments against

+ Early 2020 was genuinely uncertain

+ Protected high-risk staff and families before vaccines

– Children were at very low risk; Europe reopened sooner

– Largest learning losses on record, hitting poor kids hardest

– Relief money was partly wasted with weak oversight

Bottom line for voters: Back officials who commit to keeping schools open in emergencies and to publishing how every relief dollar was spent.

Bottom line: Closing schools in spring 2020 was defensible given what was known then. Keeping many districts remote through 2020–21, after evidence showed in-person school was low-risk, was a serious policy failure. The heaviest costs fell on poor and minority students. Teachers’ union influence on federal guidance is documented. Scores were already sliding before COVID, and reading had not fully recovered as of 2025.

NAEP 2022 math

Grade 4 down 5 points, grade 8 down 8, the largest drop on record

NCES

NAEP 2024

Reading down 2 more points in grades 4 and 8; grade 4 math up slightly; grade 8 math flat

NCES (Jan 2025)

Remote vs in-person

Districts remote longer lost more, especially high-poverty ones

Education Recovery Scorecard (Harvard/Stanford)

2026 Scorecard

Declines started about 2013; math rebounding since 2022; reading turned only in 2025; U-shaped recovery

Harvard CEPR, May 2026

CDC Feb 2021 guidance

CDC shared a draft with AFT and accepted AFT edits (GOP majority finding); AFT and committee Democrats say CDC consulted widely and AFT sought safe reopening

House Select Subcommittee final report, Dec 2024

ESSER relief

About $190B across three laws

US Dept of Education

Chronic absenteeism

About doubled from about 15% pre-pandemic to about 28% in 2022; still elevated

AEI / Return to Learn tracker; approximate

Spring 2020

Nearly all US public schools closed by late March 2020 under state orders.

2020–21 school year

Districts and states chose locally. Many Southern and rural districts and private and Catholic schools reopened in fall 2020. Many large urban districts (LA, Chicago, SF, Seattle, Washington DC) stayed fully or mostly remote into spring 2021, some for over a year. Chicago’s union held a strike vote in Jan 2022 and closed schools for several days.

Federal guidance

CDC Feb 12, 2021 Operational Strategy tied reopening to community transmission tiers and six-foot distancing. Revised to three feet in March 2021.

Status

No closures in force. ESSER funds expired Sept 2024 (liquidation into 2026). States are now adopting high-dosage tutoring and science-of-reading laws.

Learning loss

Scorecard research (Kane, Reardon et al.) finds remote time explains a meaningful share of district-level losses, with the highest-poverty remote districts losing the most. Losses are measurable in later earnings estimates.

Large

Inequality

Gaps widened between high- and low-poverty districts and between high and low achievers. NAEP 2024 lowest-percentile students fell furthest.

Widened

Health benefit

Studies of in-person schooling with mitigation found limited added transmission in 2020–21. European schools reopened in spring 2020 without major surges attributed to schools. The marginal health benefit of extended closure appears small.

Small

Recovery

2026 Scorecard: math is rebounding, aided by federal relief in high-poverty districts. Middle-income districts lag. Reading only started turning in 2025, and the decline predates COVID (since about 2013, linked by some to smartphones and reading curricula).

Partial

Mental health and absenteeism

Chronic absenteeism nearly doubled and has stayed elevated. Youth mental-health crises rose, though causation is shared with social media trends.

Persistent

Verdict: Extended closures were bad for society. The learning, earnings and equity costs were large and lasting, and the health benefit for children was small. Union pressure and partisanship, not just evidence, kept many urban districts closed. The fair defense covers spring 2020 only.

Case for closures

Case against extended closures

+ Early 2020 uncertainty and no vaccines

+ Protect older teachers and multigenerational households

+ Ventilation and staffing were not ready

– Children faced very low COVID risk; Europe reopened safely

– Lost learning is worth trillions in lifetime earnings (Hanushek estimates)

– Harm was concentrated on poor and minority students

Oklahoma ‘Bridge the Gap’ (GEER funds via ClassWallet): about $1.7M spent on non-educational items (Xbox consoles, TVs, appliances, furniture, Christmas trees); state declined available purchase controls

Oklahoma State Auditor Cindy Byrd (2022)

Mismanagement confirmed

Same program

Oklahoma Multi-County Grand Jury, Oct 2024

Found pervasive mismanagement and waste but returned no indictments

State lawsuit against ClassWallet

Oklahoma AG Drummond, Jan 2026

Case dismissed; AG called it baseless

West Virginia: 37 of 54 county districts noncompliant with ESSER rules, including improper purchases

WV Legislative Auditor (PERD), Nov 2023

Misspending and weak documentation; recoveries not verified here

Tulsa Public Schools: $4.9M in reimbursements with inadequate invoices; $110,801 unallowable

Oklahoma State Auditor

Unsupported and unallowable costs

Des Moines schools’ ESSER use

US Dept of Education OIG

Federal OIG audit of district spending; see report for findings

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

President Donald Trump

Republican

For (qualified)

Jul 8, 2020 tweet: schools should open; "May cut off funding if not open!"

[1]

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL); Ed. Commissioner Richard Corcoran

Republican

For (qualified)

Emergency Order DOE 2020-EO-06 required brick-and-mortar schools to reopen (Jul 6, 2020, for August reopening)

[2]

AFT President Randi Weingarten

Union (D-aligned)

Against (qualified)

AFT suggested language adopted in CDC Feb 2021 reopening guidance; testified to House panel (2023)

[3]

SF voters; Mayor London Breed (D)

Democrat (local)

For (qualified)

Recalled board members Collins, López, Moliga (Feb 2022) amid parent anger over slow reopening

[4]

Arguments for the current rules

Arguments against

+ Keeps the stage to people who could win

+ Rules are announced in advance

– Built by the two parties to exclude rivals

– Corporate sponsors with policy interests fund it

– You can’t reach 15% without debate exposure

Bottom line for voters: The system protects incumbents of both parties. Support a lower, transparent entry bar run by an independent sponsor.

Bottom line: Debate access is a private arrangement run by and for the two major parties. The 15% polling threshold has kept every third-party candidate out since 1996. In 2024 the two campaigns bypassed even the bipartisan commission and negotiated directly with networks. A lower, transparent threshold would serve voters better than the current setup.

Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD)

Private nonprofit founded 1987 by the RNC and DNC chairs

Exists; says it will return in 2028

CPD criteria (since 2000)

Constitutional eligibility; ballot access for 270 electoral votes; 15% average in 5 national polls

Unchanged

Last third-party candidate on stage

Ross Perot, 1992 (19% vote)

None since

2024 arrangement

Biden and Trump camps agreed directly: CNN (June 27) and ABC (Sept 10); CBS VP debate (Oct 1)

Used 15% rule; RFK Jr. excluded

Level the Playing Field v. FEC

Challenged the 15% rule

Lost (D.C. Cir. 2020)

2028 arrangements

No sponsor, dates, format or party commitments announced

CPD says it will return; checked Nov 2026

CPD rules

FEC regulation (11 CFR 110.13) lets nonprofits stage debates if they use ‘pre-established objective criteria.’ The CPD set 15% in 2000 after Perot’s 1996 exclusion. Ballot access for 270 electoral votes is also required.

2024

In May 2024 both campaigns announced they would skip the CPD. Biden’s team cited CPD scheduling (debates after early voting). Trump agreed to CNN and ABC. The networks adopted the 15% rule plus 270-vote ballot access by deadline; RFK Jr. did not qualify. A second Trump–Harris debate never happened.

Status

The CPD remains, but its role is uncertain. The RNC voted in 2022 to withdraw from CPD debates. Primary debates are run by the parties themselves.

Exclusion

Gary Johnson polled in the high single digits to about 10% in 2016 and was excluded. RFK Jr. hit low-to-mid teens in some 2023–24 polls but fell short of a 15% average. Polls in 1992 had Perot below 15% before his debates.

Effective gatekeeping

Viewership

Debates remain the largest civic audiences: 2024 ABC debate about 67M viewers (Nielsen), CNN about 51M.

High stakes

Impact

The June 2024 debate led to Biden’s withdrawal on July 21, 2024, showing debates can change races.

Decisive

Legal

Courts have deferred to the FEC; challenges argued the rule is a bipartisan in-kind contribution. They lost on deference grounds, not on evidence of fairness.

Stuck

Verdict: Bad as structured. A duopoly-run gate with a self-fulfilling 15% threshold reduces voter choice and accountability. Lowering the bar (e.g., ballot access for 270 votes plus 5% polling, or a stage for any candidate who could mathematically win) would cost little and improve legitimacy. The 2024 practice of campaigns setting terms directly is worse still.

Case for the 15% rule

Case for opening debates

+ Keeps focus on candidates who can win

+ Limits fringe or novelty candidates

+ Objective and pre-announced

– Polls are noisy and depend on name recognition

– Perot’s 1992 run shows outsiders can be viable

– Large shares of voters say they want more choices (Gallup support for a third party is often above 50%)

CPD is funded largely by corporate sponsors (e.g., Anheuser-Busch, $550,000 in 2000 and a sponsor every cycle since 1996)

Center for Public Integrity investigation; CPD Form 990s

Legal under FEC rules; sponsors gain access but no quid pro quo has been proven

Complaints that the 15% rule is an illegal corporate contribution to the two parties

FEC MURs; Level the Playing Field v. FEC

FEC dismissed; D.C. Circuit upheld the dismissal (2020)

Co-chairs are former party chairs; Frank Fahrenkopf receives no salary per 990s

CPD 990s (ProPublica)

No self-dealing found in filings

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Republican National Committee

Republican

Mixed

Voted unanimously (Apr 2022) to withdraw from CPD debates

[1]

Biden and Trump campaigns

Both

Mixed

Bypassed CPD in 2024 and negotiated network debates using a 15% threshold

[2]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent, 2024)

Independent

For

Filed FEC complaint against CNN’s debate criteria (2024)

[3]

Level the Playing Field; Gary Johnson & Jill Stein (2016 suit)

Third parties

For

Sued over the 15% rule; lost (D.C. Cir. 2020)

[4]

Arguments that deficits are OK

Arguments that they are dangerous

+ Emergency borrowing in 2020 prevented deeper damage

+ The US borrows in its own currency

– Interest crowds out everything else

– Fraud losses rival the defense budget at the high end

– Social Security trust fund runs dry in 2032

Bottom line for voters: Ask candidates for a specific plan to cut the deficit and a specific plan to cut fraud and improper payments. ‘Waste’ with no program named is not a plan.

Bottom line: Running deficits near 6% of GDP in a full-employment economy is bad policy, and both parties caused it. The deficit is now driven by interest costs rather than new programs. Debt is projected to pass its 1946 record by 2030. The 2025 tax law made the gap wider. Tariff revenue offset part of it, but that offset is legally and politically uncertain.

FY2026 deficit (projected)

$1.9T, 5.8% of GDP

CBO Feb 2026

FY2036 deficit (projected)

$3.1T, 6.7% of GDP

CBO Feb 2026

50-year average deficit

3.8% of GDP

CBO

Debt held by public

99% (2025), 101% (2026), 120% (2036), 175% (2056)

CBO

Net interest

$970B (2025), over $1.0T (2026), $2.1T (2036), 3.3% to 4.6% of GDP

CBO

2026–35 deficits vs Jan 2025 baseline

+$1.4T total: +$3.4T OBBBA-driven, +$0.7T interest, minus $2.7T mostly tariffs

CBO via Fiscal Lab

Social Security OASI trust fund

Exhausted 2032

CBO

COVID relief laws 2020–21

About $5T (CARES, Dec 2020 act, ARP)

CRFB tracker; approximate

2025

99% of GDP

2026

101% of GDP

2030

108% of GDP

2036

120% of GDP

2056

175% of GDP

Structural deficit

Revenues around 17% of GDP and outlays around 23%. The gap comes from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid growth, defense, and now interest. The primary deficit is 2.6% of GDP in 2026, falling to 2.1% by 2036. Total deficits rise anyway because of interest.

COVID spending (2020–21)

CARES Act ($2.2T), Dec 2020 relief ($0.9T) and the American Rescue Plan ($1.9T). The FY2020 deficit was about $3.1T, the largest on record.

One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025)

Made the 2017 TCJA individual cuts permanent and added tax breaks on tips, overtime and seniors. It cut Medicaid and SNAP (through work requirements), ended EV credits, and raised border and defense funding. CBO (2025) estimated about $3.4T in added deficits over 10 years before interest.

Tariffs (2025–26)

Customs revenue jumped. CBO credits about $2.7T in lower deficits, mainly from tariffs. But on Feb 20, 2026 the Supreme Court held 6–3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. CBO’s baseline reflects trade policy as of Nov 20, 2025, so part of the tariff offset is now legally void unless replaced under other statutes (e.g., Sections 232, 301, 122). The size of the remaining offset is not verified here.

Interest costs

Net interest went over $1T in 2026, exceeding defense spending. It is projected to be nearly a fifth of spending by 2036.

Worsening

Inflation

Studies (SF Fed, Jordà et al. 2022) estimate US fiscal support added roughly 2.5–3 points to 2021 core inflation. Others (Bernanke and Blanchard 2023) put more weight on energy and supply shocks.

Contributor

COVID payoff

Fast recovery and child poverty at a record low in 2021 (SPM), but also large fraud. GAO and SBA OIG estimate $200B+ in potentially fraudulent PPP and EIDL loans; that is the SBA IG figure.

Mixed

Credit rating

Moody’s downgraded the US from Aaa in May 2025, so all three major agencies now rate below AAA.

Negative

Crowding out

CBO estimates higher debt lowers private investment and future income. This is a slow erosion, not a sudden crisis.

Long-run cost

Verdict: Bad. Deficits during emergencies like 2020 can be justified, though the 2021 ARP was oversized for a recovering economy. Permanent deficits near 6% of GDP at low unemployment shift costs to future taxpayers, and interest is crowding out other spending. The 2025 tax law worsened the structural gap.

Case that deficits are fine

Case that they are dangerous

+ The US borrows in its own reserve currency; Japan carries far higher debt

+ Stabilizers and emergency spending cut recession damage

+ Primary deficit is projected to shrink

– Interest grows faster than the economy when rates are above growth

– Leaves little fiscal room for the next crisis

– Trust fund exhaustion in 2032 forces automatic benefit cuts

Federal fraud losses $233B-$521B a year (FY2018-22), 3-7% of obligations

GAO-24-105833

First government-wide estimate; includes pandemic years; not predictive

Improper payments $186B in FY2025 (up $24B); about $3T since 2003; TANF not even measured

GAO-26-108694

Totals understate the problem because some risky programs don’t report

Feeding Our Future (MN): claimed 91 million meals; about $250M in child-nutrition funds stolen; sponsor grew from $3.4M (2019) to nearly $200M (2021)

US District Court, D. Minn.; DOJ

70 charged; Aimee Bock convicted on all counts (Mar 2025), sentenced to 500 months and $243M restitution (May 2026); a juror-bribery attempt was charged separately

PPP and EIDL potentially fraudulent loans $200B+

SBA OIG

Estimate, not adjudicated total

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) & President Biden (D)

Bipartisan

Mixed

Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (H.R. 3746) passed House 314–117 and Senate 63–36; 71 R and 46 D voted no in the House

[1]

Democrats; President Biden

Democrat

For

American Rescue Plan (H.R. 1319, 2021), $1.9T, passed with no Republican votes

[2]

Republicans; President Trump

Republican

For

H.R. 1 (2025); CBO estimate ~$3.4T added to deficits over 2025–2034

[3]

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY); Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)

Republican (defectors)

Against

Voted no on H.R. 1 (2025), citing deficits

[3]

Blue-state model: strengths

Blue-state model: weaknesses

+ Higher wages and productivity

+ Broader health coverage

+ Lower murder rate in NY

– Very high housing costs from building restrictions

– Big spending without tracked results (CA homelessness audit)

– Worst pension debt (IL)

Bottom line for voters: Ask any candidate how many homes their policies will let get built, and whether they will publish results for every major spending program.

Bottom line: The strongest evidence against blue-state governance is about housing and cost. Land-use restrictions in CA and NY made homes scarce and expensive, and that drives the steady domestic out-migration. Crime does not divide cleanly by party. Several red states have higher murder rates. The blue states also stay richer and more productive. Democrats’ clearest self-inflicted failure is blocking housing, not the general idea of "Democratic policy."

Top state income tax rate

13.3% (+1.1% SDI on wages)

10.9%

4.95% flat

0%

0%

Domestic migration, 2020–24 direction (Census)

Net loss

Net loss

Net loss

Net gain

Net gain

Housing cost vs US

Among highest

High (NYC metro)

Near average

Near/below average; rising

Above average; insurance surge

Population trend, 2024–25

Slight growth via immigration

Slight growth via immigration

Flat

Fast growth

Fast growth

Party control (2026)

D trifecta

D trifecta

D trifecta

R trifecta

R trifecta

California

−229,077

New York

−137,586

Illinois

−40,017

Florida

+22,517

Texas

+67,299

California

D

486.0

4.5

Texas

R

389.4

5.2

New York

D

380.2

2.7

Illinois

D

289.2

5.8

Florida

R

267.1

3.9

Blue model (CA, NY, IL)

Progressive income taxes, higher minimum wages (CA $16.50 in 2025; fast-food $20), expansive Medicaid and social programs, strict environmental review (CEQA), rent regulation (NYC), strong public-sector unions with large pension obligations (IL most underfunded), and restrictive local zoning.

Red model (TX, FL)

No income tax, higher property taxes (TX) or sales and tourism taxes (FL), lighter permitting and land-use rules, right-to-work, fewer social programs (neither expanded Medicaid), and state preemption of blue cities (e.g., TX HB 2127, 2023).

Cities

Most large cities in both red and blue states are run by Democrats (Houston, Dallas, Austin, Miami-Dade until 2022). So city-level comparisons by party usually compare blue cities to other blue cities.

Migration

Census shows sustained net domestic out-migration from CA, NY and IL and inflow to TX and FL since at least 2010, accelerated in 2020–22. IRS migration data shows leavers skew middle-income, consistent with housing costs as the main push.

Blue negative

Housing

CA and NY permit far fewer homes per capita than TX and FL. Research (Glaeser and Gyourko; Hsieh and Moretti) ties high coastal prices mainly to supply restrictions. CA’s 2023–25 YIMBY laws (SB 9, SB 35, 2025 CEQA reform) are recent.

Blue negative

Crime

FBI data: violent-crime and murder rates do not divide by party. Third Way (2023) found higher per-capita murder rates in states Trump won. Big-city crime fell in both red and blue areas in 2023–25. City-level spikes (SF property crime, Chicago homicide) are real but local.

No clean split

Fiscal health

IL has the worst pension funding (43.3% funded in 2023, lowest in the US per Pew) and history of credit downgrades, though it was upgraded 2021–24. CA has volatile capital-gains revenue and recurring deficits. TX and FL hold large rainy-day funds. Blue states send more money to Washington than they get back.

Mixed

Prosperity

CA and NY have higher GDP per capita and median wages, but after housing costs their poverty rates (Census Supplemental Poverty Measure) rank among the highest; CA’s is the highest. FL lacks Medicaid expansion and has a larger uninsured share; TX has the highest uninsured rate in the US.

Trade-off

Verdict: Blue-state housing and permitting policy is clearly bad. It is the strongest support for the claim and explains much of the cost-of-living gap and out-migration. On crime, overall prosperity and safety nets, the evidence does not support a blanket "Democratic policies ruin states" claim. Red states win on affordability and growth, and lose on health coverage and some public-health outcomes.

Case for the claim

Case against

+ Decade-plus of residents voting with their feet

+ Housing scarcity created by policy, plus very high cost of living

+ IL pension debt; CA homelessness (largest in US) despite large spending

– Blue states remain the most productive economies; growth is not the same as welfare

– Crime and murder are not higher in blue states overall

– Red-state growth partly reflects cheap land and climate, not only policy

CA allocated about $24B to homelessness and housing (FY2018-19 to 2022-23) but stopped tracking statewide spending after FY2020-21; 3 of 5 programs reviewed lacked outcome data to judge

California State Auditor 2023-102.1, Apr 2024

Only Homekey and CalWORKs Housing Support appeared cost-effective; no fraud finding, but an accountability failure

Illinois pensions 43.3% funded (2023), lowest in US

Pew

Structural underfunding, not fraud

Texas Operation Lone Star: $11B+ border spending, much via emergency no-bid contracts (Texas Observer, Houston Chronicle)

Texas State Auditor 27-005, Oct 2026

Sampled $282M in payments on 3 contracts were accurate and supported; one routine janitorial contract improperly treated as emergency

Florida: $10M from a Medicaid settlement routed to the Hope Florida Foundation, then to political committees

Leon County grand jury, 2025

Grand jury said the money was misappropriated but indicted no one; 1st DCA ordered the report expunged in Oct 2026, ruling the funds were not public money

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)

Democrat

For

Championed Prop 50 (Nov 4, 2025) for temporary legislature-drawn maps to counter Texas; passed 64%

[1]

Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX)

Republican

For

Signed HB 4 (2025 special session), a mid-decade congressional map aimed at +5 GOP seats

[2]

Newsom vs. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

Both

Mixed

Debated state models on Fox News (Nov 30, 2023)

[3]

Arguments for government action

Arguments against

+ Health misinformation and fake AI ads can cause real harm

+ Government is allowed to speak and share information

+ Broadcasters use public airwaves

– Informal pressure avoids courts and voters

– Both parties used it against their critics

– Taxpayer-funded ‘disinformation’ raters had little oversight

Bottom line for voters: Judge candidates by whether they would restrain their own side’s use of pressure on platforms, broadcasters and universities, not just the other side’s.

Bottom line: No party is "eliminating" free speech, and courts have struck down or blocked most of the direct restrictions. Both parties have used government leverage against speech they dislike. The Biden administration pressed platforms over COVID and election content from 2020 to 2022. The Trump administration’s FCC used broadcast licenses and merger reviews against networks in 2025–26. California passed deepfake laws a federal court struck down. The threat is real and bipartisan. It comes as indirect pressure, not outright bans.

White House, CDC and FBI contacts with platforms (Murthy v. Missouri)

2020–22

SCOTUS 6–3: no standing (June 2024)

Merits never decided; 5th Cir. had found coercion

NRA v. Vullo

2024

SCOTUS 9–0 for NRA

Government can’t coerce third parties to punish speech

Twitter Files (internal docs released by Musk)

Dec 2022–23

Released

Showed frequent government flagging; formal coercion disputed

CA AB 2839 (election deepfakes) and AB 2655 (platform takedown)

2024

Struck down (Kohls v. Bonta, E.D. Cal.)

2839 failed First Amendment review; 2655 preempted by Section 230

Campus speech (FIRE)

2024–26

Ongoing

Most rated colleges hold at least one restrictive policy; ‘yellow light’ is the most common rating

FCC: Kimmel suspension after Carr remarks

Sept 2025

Show returned after about a week

Chair publicly threatened ABC affiliates

FCC: early license reviews of 8 ABC stations; poll-reporting warnings

2026

Pending

Commissioner Gomez dissents; no decision reported

Jawboning (2020–22)

White House, Surgeon General, CDC, FBI and CISA flagged posts and pressed Meta, YouTube and Twitter on COVID misinformation and election content. The 5th Circuit (2023) found coercion and significant encouragement. The Supreme Court reversed on standing in Murthy v. Missouri (June 26, 2024) without ruling on the merits.

Campus speech codes

Bias-response teams, harassment definitions broader than the Davis standard, and free-speech zones. FIRE rates policies red, yellow or green, and publishes an annual College Free Speech Rankings survey. Since 2023, protests over Gaza produced new time-place-manner rules. Federal pressure (Title VI investigations, funding freezes at Harvard and Columbia in 2025) pushed from the other side.

California AB 2839 / AB 2655 (2024)

AB 2839 let anyone sue over materially deceptive election deepfakes. AB 2655 required large platforms to remove or label them. The court enjoined AB 2839 in Oct 2024 after the Kohls (Mr Reagan) parody suit. Judge John Mendez (E.D. Cal.) entered a final judgment and permanent injunction against AB 2655 on Aug 20, 2025 (preempted by Section 230). On Aug 29, 2025 he struck AB 2839 on First Amendment grounds (content- and viewpoint-based, not narrowly tailored).

FCC under Chair Brendan Carr (2025–26)

Reopened news-distortion complaints against ABC, CBS and NBC. Used merger review (Skydance–Paramount closed July 2025 after CBS settled with Trump for $16M and made commitments). Sept 2025: Carr’s remarks preceded Nexstar and Sinclair pulling Jimmy Kimmel; ABC suspended him and then reinstated him. Oct 2026: early license-renewal reviews of 8 ABC stations, plus warnings about airing ‘fabricated’ election polls.

Courts as backstop

Vullo (9–0), Moody v. NetChoice (2024, platform moderation is protected editorial judgment) and Kohls v. Bonta all limited government. Murthy left jawboning lines unclear.

Mostly protective

Platform moderation

Pressure on platforms mostly ended after 2023: X ended most moderation, and Meta ended US third-party fact-checking in Jan 2025. Meta’s Zuckerberg told the House Judiciary Committee (Aug 2024) that the administration had pressured Meta and that he regretted giving in.

Campus climate

FIRE/College Pulse surveys show large shares of students self-censor and many find shouting down speakers acceptable. These are self-reported attitudes, not measures of actual sanctions.

Broadcast chilling

Settlements (ABC $15M Dec 2024, CBS/Paramount $16M July 2025) and the Kimmel episode show real leverage. No license has been revoked as of the cited reporting.

Warning

Verdict: Jawboning, campus speech codes, deepfake bans and FCC license threats are all bad for society. Each lets the party in power chill speech without passing a law that would survive court review. The "eliminating free speech" framing overstates it. The fair criticism is that both parties are eroding norms. Neither left nor right holds a clean record.

Strongest case for intervention

Strongest case against

+ Real harms: viral health misinformation, deceptive deepfakes, targeted harassment

+ Government can share information and speak itself

+ Broadcasters use public spectrum under public-interest duties

– Who decides what counts as misinformation? Some flagged claims, such as lab-leak, were later treated as plausible

– Informal pressure escapes judicial review and accountability

– Regulatory leverage (licenses, mergers, grants) turns into partisan punishment

State Department Global Engagement Center (GEC) grant program had inadequate risk assessments, monitoring plans and reviews of recipients

State Dept OIG audit, April 2020

Significant grant-management deficiencies; did not find misuse of specific awards

GEC gave a $100,000 grant (2021) to the Global Disinformation Index, which rated US news sites for advertisers

Texas and Daily Wire/Federalist v. State Dept (filed Dec 2023)

Court let the suit proceed (May 2024); final ruling not verified here. GEC closed Dec 2024 when Congress let its authorization lapse

California AB 2839 and AB 2655

Kohls v. Bonta, E.D. Cal. court record

Both struck down (Aug 20 and 29, 2025)

FCC early license reviews of 8 ABC stations

FCC record; Commissioner Gomez dissent

Pending; no license decision

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Missouri AG (now Sen.) Eric Schmitt (R)

Republican

Against

Sued Biden administration over social-media "jawboning" (Murthy v. Missouri, 2024: dismissed for standing)

[1]

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL); Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX)

Republican

For

Signed laws limiting platform moderation; Supreme Court vacated & remanded (Moody v. NetChoice, 2024)

[2]

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Republican (defector)

Against

Called FCC Chair Brendan Carr’s threats over Jimmy Kimmel "dangerous as hell" (Sep 19, 2025)

[3]

FCC Chair Brendan Carr (Trump appointee)

Republican

For

Carr urged ABC to "take action" on Kimmel: "We can do this the easy way or the hard way" (Sep 2025)

[3]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)

Democrat

For

Signed AB 2655/AB 2839 (2024) on election deepfakes; challenged in court by X Corp. and others

[4]