Pros of expanded carry

Cons

+ Constitutional right

+ Ends permits awarded by favoritism or bribery (Santa Clara)

+ Licensed carriers have low crime rates

– Violent crime 13–15% higher a decade after right-to-carry laws (Donohue)

– Permitless carry drops training and the permit check

– More guns in everyday disputes

Bottom line: The ‘more guns, less crime’ finding has not held up. Newer, stronger methods (synthetic controls, more data years) link right-to-carry laws to modestly higher violent crime. Licensed carriers themselves commit crimes at very low rates. Shall-issue with training is a defensible compromise. Permitless carry drops screening and training for small gains.

Permitless carry states, 2026

29 (Vermont always; Alaska 2003; most since 2015)

May-issue states before Bruen

About 8 (CA, NY, NJ, MD, MA, HI, DE, RI); all forced to shall-issue by Bruen, 2022

Lott & Mustard (1997)

Right-to-carry laws lower violent crime

National Research Council (2004)

No credible evidence either way (one dissent)

Donohue, Aneja & Weber (2019)

Violent crime 13–15% higher 10 years after a right-to-carry law (synthetic control)

RAND rating, shall-issue laws (2024)

Supportive evidence they increase total and firearm homicides

RAND rating, permitless carry (2024)

Limited evidence of more fatal police shootings

Active carry permits

About 21M+ (Crime Prevention Research Center est.; not independently verified)

Post-Bruen ‘sensitive places’ laws (NY, CA, HI, MD)

Mostly upheld by circuits, but Wolford v. Lopez (June 25, 2026, 6–3) struck Hawaii’s default ban on carrying onto private property open to the public

Shall-issue

The state must issue a permit to anyone who meets objective criteria (background check, often training). Florida’s 1987 law started the wave.

Permitless (constitutional) carry

No permit needed for adults allowed to own guns. Many states keep optional permits for reciprocity. Recent adopters include Texas (2021) and Florida (2023). North Carolina’s SB 50 is not law: Gov. Stein vetoed it in June 2025, the Senate overrode 30–19, and the House has not held an override vote as of Nov 2026.

After Bruen

Discretionary ‘proper cause’ rules are unconstitutional. States responded with broad sensitive-place bans and stricter training (e.g. NY CCIA 2022, CA SB 2 2023).

Stated reasons

Underlying drivers

+ Self-defense is a core right (Heller, Bruen)

+ May-issue regimes were arbitrary and favored the connected (NYC celebrity permits)

+ Deterrence: criminals can’t tell who is armed

– NRA and state gun groups made permitless carry a litmus test in GOP primaries

– Gun sales and the carry-insurance industry (USCCA) profit from expansion

– Blue states’ post-Bruen restrictions were partly symbolic defiance

Lott line

County panel data from 1977–1992 found crime falls after right-to-carry laws. Later work showed the results depend heavily on the model and the years studied, and the crack-era crime wave confounds them.

Not robust

Donohue line

Using more years and synthetic controls, violent crime rises 13–15% within a decade. Proposed mechanisms: guns stolen from cars, escalated confrontations, and police time diverted. Lott and Moody dispute the choice of controls.

Stronger evidence

Permit-holder conduct

State data (e.g. Texas DPS, Florida) show permit holders are convicted at lower rates than the general public, and lower than police on some measures.

Low misuse

Defensive use

Estimates range from about 70,000 a year (NCVS) to 1.7M+ (surveys such as English 2021). The huge range makes cost-benefit claims weak.

Disputed

After Bruen

Permit applications surged in former may-issue states. Too few years of data exist for causal crime estimates.

Too early

Santa Clara County carry permits for donations

Permits allegedly traded for donations to the sheriff’s campaign. Sheriff Smith resigned after a 2022 civil corruption verdict; a former captain was convicted; the former undersheriff pleaded guilty (Sept 2026).

Santa Clara DA; LA Times

Killings by concealed-carry permit holders

Violence Policy Center counts 3,079 incidents and 3,345 deaths since 2007. VPC is an advocacy group, and its count includes pending cases and suicides.

VPC (advocacy; not a government count)

Verdict: The right to carry is settled law, and abolishing arbitrary may-issue regimes was fair. On the evidence, though, more carrying doesn’t reduce crime and probably raises it modestly. Shall-issue with real training and background checks is the best balance. Permitless carry removes the screening that keeps permit-holder misuse low, and it weakens police tools for checking who is carrying.

Strongest case for expansive carry

Strongest case against

+ Constitutional right; may-issue was discriminatory

+ Licensed carriers rarely commit crimes

+ Self-defense where police response is slow (rural areas)

– The best recent studies show more violent crime after right-to-carry laws

– Permitless carry drops training and the permit check

– More guns in public raises the stakes of everyday conflicts

Who

Party / level

Position

Evidence

Ref

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC)

Republican

For

Sponsor of Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act (H.R. 38); passed House 231–198 (Dec 6, 2017); reintroduced 119th

[1]

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

Republican

For

Signed HB 543 (2023), permitless carry

[2]

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA); Sen. Anthony Portantino (D)

Democrat

Against

SB 2 (2023) restricts carry in "sensitive places"; partly enjoined in court

[3]

House Democrats

Democrat

Against

Overwhelmingly opposed H.R. 38 (2017)

[1]