3,201,144. That's total CBP encounters in FY2023 — an all-time record.
It wasn't weather. In 2021 DHS ended Remain in Mexico, then released many crossers with Notices to Appear into courts backlogged for years. Border Patrol encounters went from 1,662,167 (FY21) to 2,214,652 (FY22).
The DHS Inspector General found 291,000+ migrant children transferred FY19–23 were never served a court notice.
Only after political pressure, June 2024, did a proclamation restrict asylum — and crossings fell.
PRO: Asylum seekers got a hearing instead of instant expulsion; CBO credited the surge with added labor and revenue.
CON / COST: Record illegal entries, overwhelmed courts, city budget shocks, cartel enrichment, and 291,000+ children never served court notices (DHS OIG).
SOCIETY: BAD — the 2021–24 surge was a policy choice that cities, courts and taxpayers are still paying for.
Full analysis
Southern Border Crossings: Catch-and-Release, Asylum Expansion, and Record Encounters
Biden-era termination of Remain in Mexico and Title 42, expanded parole/asylum processing, reduced interior enforcement, and CBP record encounters FY2021–24 — with DHS OIG findings, fiscal and trafficking costs, and a direct social verdict. As of Nov 5, 2026.
Content as of Nov 5, 2026, 6:04 AM ET. Source Page: PolicyBombs canvas
Long-form deep analysis. Companion to the 10-minute quick reference (01-southern-border-crossings-summary.docx).
Contents
- 10-Minute Lazy Voter Guide
- 1. What is the policy
- 2. Why it exists
- 3. Realized effects
- Local investigations and anomalies
- Who supports / who opposes
- 4. Good or bad for society
- References
- Gaps / unverified
10-Minute Lazy Voter Guide
Who’s for / against: For catch-and-release / expansive asylum processing: Biden DHS (Mayorkas), most Democrats. For Remain in Mexico / Title 42-style expulsion / interior enforcement: Trump, most Republicans; some Democrats later backed Laken Riley Act and June 2024 asylum restrictions. |
Arguments for the Biden approach | Arguments against |
+ Humanitarian: asylum claims get a hearing instead of immediate expulsion + CBP One and parole were framed as orderly alternatives to illegal crossing + CBO credited the 2021–26 surge with lowering federal deficits via higher labor and revenue | – Record encounters (CBP: 3.20M total FY23) overwhelmed cities, courts, and ORR – DHS OIG: 291,000+ unaccompanied children never served an NTA; trafficking risk rose – Cartels monetized the pull factor; rule of law and legal immigration credibility eroded |
Verdict for voters: The 2021–24 border surge was a policy choice with foreseeable pull effects, not a force of nature. Catch-and-release into multi-year court backlogs, ending MPP, and delayed Title 42 exit timing produced record crossings, city fiscal crises, and documented failures to track released children. Crossings later collapsed under harder enforcement — evidence that policy, not "root causes" alone, drove the numbers. |
1. What is the policy
A cluster of Biden-Harris administration immigration actions that replaced Trump-era deterrence with processing, parole, and release pending distant hearings:
Item | Detail | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
Remain in Mexico (MPP) ended | DHS Sec. Mayorkas terminated MPP June 1, 2021. Courts forced temporary restart; Supreme Court cleared termination June 2022; DHS ended it Aug 2022. | Substantiated |
Title 42 ended | COVID-era public-health expulsions (Mar 2020–May 11, 2023) ended when the national emergency expired. Encounters then shifted fully to Title 8. | Substantiated |
Catch-and-release / NTA processing | Many Title 8 border crossers released with Notices to Appear into immigration courts with multi-year backlogs; interior ICE priorities narrowed under Mayorkas memos. | Substantiated |
Parole and CBP One | CHNV parole (~530,000), expanded TPS, and CBP One appointments at ports shifted some flows to ports while total encounters still hit records. | Substantiated |
June 2024 asylum restriction | After political pressure, Biden issued a proclamation restricting asylum when daily encounters exceeded thresholds — crossings fell before the 2024 election. | Substantiated |
2. Why it exists
Stated reasons: restore "humane" asylum processing; end "cruel" Trump policies; address "root causes" in Central America; process people lawfully at ports.
Underlying drivers (evidence-based assessment): Democratic coalition pressure from immigrant-advocacy NGOs and progressive activists; employer demand for low-wage labor with weak E-Verify; political incentive to contrast with Trump; asylum statute and TVPRA create durable legal pull for families and unaccompanied children; cartels earn smuggling fees and treat policy signals as market data. Corruption/capture hypothesis: emergency city migrant contracts (e.g., NYC DocGo) show waste and weak oversight when surge spending hits; federal ORR sponsor vetting failures are institutional neglect with trafficking risk — not proven cash-for-votes corruption at the White House level. Say so plainly: we did not find primary-source proof that border policy was sold for bribes; we do find interest-group capture, fiscal externalization onto cities, and inspector-general-documented operational failure.
3. Realized effects
CBP nationwide enforcement encounters (Title 8 + Title 42 where applicable):
Chart data (shown as a chart on the Page)
Label | Value |
|---|---|
FY20 | 647K |
FY21 | 1.96M |
FY22 | 2.77M |
FY23 | 3.20M |
FY24 | 2.90M |
Metric | Figure | Source | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|
USBP encounters FY21 | 1,662,167 | CBP FY24 stats | Substantiated |
USBP encounters FY22 (peak) | 2,214,652 | CBP | Substantiated |
Total CBP encounters FY23 (record) | 3,201,144 | CBP | Substantiated |
USBP recidivism FY21 | 27% | CBP | Substantiated |
UACs never served NTA | 291,000+ (of 448,000+ transferred FY19–23) | DHS OIG-24-46 | Substantiated |
UACs who missed court | 32,000+ | DHS OIG-24-46 | Substantiated |
Immigration court backlog | ~2.5M+ pending by FY23 end | DOJ EOIR / BJS | Substantiated |
Cases dismissed for DHS NTA filing failure | ~200,000 since 2021 (TRAC) | TRAC Syracuse | Substantiated |
Item | Detail | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
City fiscal strain | NYC spent multi-billion dollars at peak on migrant shelter; Denver, Chicago, and others declared emergencies. | High local cost |
Child labor / trafficking risk | NYT (2023) and DOL WHD documented migrant minors in slaughterhouse sanitation and other hazardous work; HHS OIG found sponsor-vetting gaps. | Serious |
Later reversal | Harder 2024–26 enforcement cut crossings sharply — strong evidence policy levers work both ways. | Substantiated |
Local investigations and anomalies
Finding | Source | What investigators concluded |
|---|---|---|
NYC $432M no-bid DocGo migrant housing: $11M of first $13.8M unsupported; empty room nights paid | NYC Comptroller audit 2024 | Recommended recoupment; contract not renewed |
ORR sponsor files missing required safety checks (16%); illegible IDs (35%); late follow-ups | HHS OIG OEI-07-21-00250, Feb 2024 | ACF agreed to recommendations; fingerprinting tightened later |
ICE cannot monitor all released UACs; hundreds of thousands without NTAs | DHS OIG-24-46 Aug 2024; OIG-25-21 Mar 2025 | Heightened trafficking and absconder risk; management alert |
~200,000 immigration cases dismissed because DHS failed to file paperwork | TRAC; House Judiciary letters to Mayorkas | Systemic NTA filing failure, not isolated clerk error |
Anomaly read: release volume outran paperwork and sponsor vetting capacity. That is not "Russian disinformation"; it is inspector-general and comptroller record. Fraud-for-hire at the border (fake asylum coaching) is widely alleged; national quantified counts remain incomplete — tag Unverified at scale.
Who supports / who opposes
For = tougher deterrence/enforcement. Against = expansive release/asylum processing. Sourced Nov 5, 2026.
Who | Party / level | Position | Evidence | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alejandro Mayorkas / Biden DHS | Democrat / Cabinet | Against (ended MPP) | DHS termination of MPP June 1, 2021 | [1] |
Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) | Bipartisan | For (2024 border deal) | Failed cloture 49–50 Feb 7, 2024 after Trump opposition | [2] |
Sen. Katie Britt + 12 Senate Democrats | Bipartisan | For | Laken Riley Act S.5 signed Jan 29, 2025; Senate 64–35 | [3] |
Pres. Biden (June 2024) | Democrat | Partial shift For | Proclamation restricting asylum at high encounter levels | [4] |
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) | Republican | For | Operation Lone Star; busing migrants; border barriers | [5] |
Cross-party notes: 12 Senate Democrats backed Laken Riley Act. Republicans killed the 2024 Lankford deal. Biden himself restricted asylum in June 2024 after years of opposing Title 42-style tools. |
Further reading (also listed in References):
- [1] DHS: Termination of MPP (2021) — dhs.gov
- [2] Senate roll call Feb 7, 2024 — senate.gov
- [3] Congress.gov S.5 Laken Riley Act — congress.gov
- [4] White House asylum proclamation June 2024 — whitehouse.gov
- [5] Texas DPS Operation Lone Star — dps.texas.gov
4. Good or bad for society
Direct judgment: Bad for society at the 2021–24 scale. Measurable harms: record illegal entries, overwhelmed courts, city budget shocks, cartel enrichment, and inspector-general-documented failure to track released children. Claimed benefits (labor supply, humanitarian process) do not justify open-ended release into a 2.5M-case backlog. Opportunity cost: legal immigration and asylum credibility. Bureaucracy grew (parole offices, NGO shelter networks) while interior removal capacity did not keep pace. Later enforcement success shows the earlier surge was optional. |
- Restore credible deterrence (returns, MPP-style waits, consequences for absconders).
- Mandatory E-Verify with real employer penalties.
- Fund asylum adjudication to months, not years; serve every NTA.
- ORR: fingerprint every sponsor, track every child, prosecute trafficking.
References
[1] [1] DHS: Termination of MPP (2021). dhs.gov. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2021/06/01/secretary-mayorkas-announces-termination-migrant-protection-protocols
[2] [2] Senate roll call Feb 7, 2024. senate.gov. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1182/vote_118_2_00039.htm
[3] [3] Congress.gov S.5 Laken Riley Act. congress.gov. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/5
[4] [4] White House asylum proclamation June 2024. whitehouse.gov. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/06/03/a-proclamation-on-securing-the-border/
[5] [5] Texas DPS Operation Lone Star. dps.texas.gov. https://www.dps.texas.gov/news/operation-lone-star
[6] CBP Enforcement Statistics FY2024. cbp.gov. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics-fy2024
[7] DHS OIG-24-46: ICE cannot monitor UACs. oig.dhs.gov. https://www.oig.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/assets/2024-08/OIG-24-46-Aug24.pdf
[8] HHS OIG: Gaps in sponsor screening (2024). oig.hhs.gov. https://oig.hhs.gov/reports/all/2024/gaps-in-sponsor-screening-and-followup-raise-safety-concerns-for-unaccompanied-children/
[9] TRAC: 200,000 cases dismissed for missing NTAs. tracreports.org. https://tracreports.org/reports/739/
[10] NYC Comptroller DocGo audit. comptroller.nyc.gov. https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/audit-of-the-department-of-housing-preservation-and-developments-oversight-of-its-contract-with-rapid-reliable-testing-ny-llc-aka-docgo/
[11] CBO: Immigration surge and the budget (2024). cbo.gov. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569
Gaps / unverified
Item | Detail | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
Exact nationwide ‘gotaways’ | CBP estimates exist but methodologies change; treat year-to-year gotaway totals carefully. | Pending |
Asylum-coaching industry size | Widely reported; no single audited national dollar figure. | Unverified at scale |
White House quid-pro-quo corruption | Not established by IG/court record for border policy design itself. | Not supported |
PolicyBombs. Follow @PolicyBombs on X.